It is becoming a car industry parlour game to predict when fully driverless cars will arrive on the roads.应验几乎无人驾驶的汽车将何时上路，于是以沦为汽车业的题目游戏。Audi chairman Rupert Stadler, whose company just topped a record 149mph with a fully self-driving RS7 sportback, says drivers will be able to take their hands off the wheel by 2016. A year later, Volvo will put 100 self-driving cars on the streets of Gothenburg, Sweden, with the aim of getting a fully autonomous vehicle on the market by 2020.奥迪(Audi)的全自动驾驶RS7掀背轿跑车刚以149英里的时速创下了纪录。

该公司董事长鲁珀特施塔德勒(Rupert Stadler)称之为，到2016年驾驶员将需要从手动操纵汽车中解放出来。一年后，沃尔沃将向瑞典哥德堡(Gothenburg)的道路投入100辆自动驾驶汽车，目标是在2020年向市场发售几乎自动驾驶的汽车。Research group Gartner says that, by 2030, autonomous-enabled vehicles will make up about 25 per cent of passenger cars in mature markets. Consultancy Roland Berger says “wide adoption” could follow soon after, creating a market worth $60bn for carmakers, parts suppliers and tech companies.研究公司低德纳(Gartner)称之为，到2030年，自动驾驶的汽车将在成熟期市场的乘用车部分占有大约25%的份额。

咨询公司罗兰贝格(Roland Berger)称之为，“普及”有可能在那之后迅速来临，为汽车制造商、零部件供应商及科技公司建构600亿美元的市场。But Stefano Aversa, co-president at the AlixPartners consultancy, says completely autonomous vehicles will never happen. “You cannot think of something that is fully autonomous in any situation – you would never be able to cover the infinite possibilities,” he says. “You have a pedestrian coming from your left, a bicycle on your right, a kid, a cat...or simply a speed bump or a hole in the ground.”但是，咨询公司艾睿铂(AlixPartners)的联席总裁斯特凡诺阿维萨(Stefano Aversa)回应，几乎自动驾驶的汽车总有一天不有可能经常出现。

“你想不出在任何情况下都能几乎自律操作者的系统——你总有一天不有可能覆盖面积无限的可能性，”他称之为，“你左边过来一名行人，右边经常出现一辆自行车，一个小孩，一只猫……或者只是一个减速带或地上的一个坑。”Self-driving cars have been heralded as the answer to problems from tedious roads and congestion to traffic accidents – more than 90 per cent of which are caused by human error. Numerous companies and cities have conducted trials. Google has clocked up almost 1m miles of testing on public roads in the US and four cities in the UK will host pilot projects early in 2015.自动驾驶汽车被誉为解决问题无趣驾驶员、交通堵塞及交通事故（多达90%的事故由人为错误造成）等问题的答案。很多公司和城市展开了试验。

谷歌(Google)在美国公共道路上已完成了相似100万英里的试车里程，英国4座城市也将在2015年初启动试点项目。But technical and legal experts are increasingly concerned that the frenzied excitement surrounding the technology is obscuring the significant obstacles that lie in the way of the introduction of autonomous vehicles.然而，技术和法律专家日益担忧，环绕该项技术产生的疯狂激动，掩饰了引进自动驾驶汽车过程中的根本性障碍。For a start, driverless vehicles are only allowed on the road in four US states. They are also outlawed in Europe, though a recent amendment to the UN’s Vienna Convention on road traffic means 72 countries, including in Europe and the Americas, can implement rules to allow a car to drive alone for periods.首先，美国只有4个州容许无人驾驶汽车上路。它们在欧洲也不被法律认可，尽管联合国的《维也纳道路交通公约》(Vienna Convention on Road Traffic)近期的一项修改意味著，还包括欧洲和美洲在内的72个国家可以实行法规，容许汽车在特定期间自律驾驶员。

But road traffic laws still require the driver to be able to take control of the vehicle and override autonomous functions.但是道路交通法律依然拒绝司机有能力掌控车辆，手动打破自动驾驶功能。“That contradicts the visions and fantasies of those who promote autonomous cars,” says Stephan Appt, legal director in Germany for Pinsent Masons, the law firm.“这与自动驾驶车辆倡导者的愿景与幻想是违背的，”品诚梅森律师事务所(Pinsent Masons)德国法律总监斯蒂芬爱人普特(Stephan Appt)称之为。“To sleep, to watch movies – that would not be possible at the moment, because you are required always to remain in control.”“驾车时睡、看电影——现在不有可能构建，因为你必需仍然维持对车辆的掌控。

”According to Ruth Graham, a partner at UK law firm BLM, there are key areas of civil and product liability that would need to be addressed before driverless cars became possible.英国BLM律师事务所的合伙人露丝格雷厄姆(Ruth Graham)指出，在无人驾驶汽车沦为有可能前，必须解决问题民事及产品赔偿金责任一些关键领域的问题。For instance, in an accident, insurers would need to assess whether the driver or the manufacturer was responsible for an accident. The incident would be complicated further if the crash involved the driver of a conventional, non-autonomous vehicle.比如，在一起事故中，保险公司必须评估：是驾驶员人还是制造商要对事故负责管理？如果这起事故还牵涉到传统的非自动驾驶车辆，那将显得更加简单。

Even criminal liability will need to be looked at, Ms Graham says. “Would it still be an offence to be in your driverless car drunk or drugged?”格雷厄姆称之为，甚至刑事责任也必须获得考虑到。“如果你醉酒或酗酒后躺在无人驾驶车辆内，否仍包含违法行为？”One way of keeping the driver alert even in autonomous mode is to use eye and head-tracking smart sensors in the cabin, something being worked on by General Motors.一种让驾驶员维持警觉（甚至在自动驾驶状态下）的办法，是在车内应用于跟踪眼睛和头部动作的智能传感器，通用汽车(General Motors)正在研究这项技术。

But this and other elements of autonomous vehicles – the ultimate connected cars – raise questions about data protection. Dashboard cameras, for instance, are banned in Germany, where the sharing of footage is seen as a violation of other road users’ privacy.但是，这项技术以及自动驾驶车辆（超级互联互通的汽车）的其它元素，引起了种种数据保护问题。荐个例子，仪表盘摄像头在德国是被禁令的，在德国，共享道路行经的视频画面包含对其他道路使用者隐私的侵害。

Would drivers own the data produced by the vehicles, or would manufacturers? Could data collected by onboard “black boxes” be sold to insurers? “Who will be permitted to take the data out of the black box?” asks Mr Appt.驾车者和制造商两方面，谁享有车辆分解的数据？由车载“黑匣子”搜集的数据能否被出售给保险公司？爱人普特问道，“谁将享有从黑匣子读取数据的权利？”Technical experts also think mainstream manufacturers are further off developing the systems that would facilitate a fully autonomous car than the hype would suggest. Numerous so-called advanced driver assistance systems have already been incorporated in cars, such as automatic braking and adaptive cruise control – which adjusts speed according to the car in front.技术专家也指出，主流汽车制造商研发全自动汽车设施系统的进展，与抹黑所似乎的相距甚远。很多所谓的“高级驾驶员辅助系统”(ADAS)已被构建至新款汽车，例如自动刹车和自适应巡弋掌控（根据前方车辆的动态调整车速）。

But the leap to complete autonomy is a step beyond. Some industry insiders say the carmakers, though investing large amounts of capital, will have to buy in the technology or form joint ventures if they wish to achieve their lofty hopes for driverless cars.但是，要构建自动驾驶这一进步，仍是当前无法匹敌的。一些业内人士指出，虽然投放大量资金，但如果想要构建无人驾驶汽车的远大理想，汽车制造商将被迫出售技术或者重新组建合资企业。The quality of the technology is crucial, because cars, as sophisticated computers, could be vulnerable to hackers.技术质量至关重要，因为汽车就像仪器的计算机一样，有可能更容易受到黑客攻击。

Hugh Boyes, cyber security expert at the UK’s Institution of Engineering and Technology, says: “If we have a hacker community starting to target vehicles, you can imagine a fair amount of chaos. You just have to look at what happens in London when one vehicle breaks down on a main artery of the city.英国工程技术学会(Institution of Engineering and Technology)的网络安全专家休博伊斯(Hugh Boyes)称之为：“如果我们遇上一个黑客群体开始反击汽车，你可以想象不会有多么恐慌。你只要想到一辆汽车在伦敦的主要道路上撞毁时的情景。”“So, if just one in 100, one in 1,000 is interfered with and ceases to operate as planned, we can expect mayhem.”“因此，只要黑客需要阻碍百分之一或千分之一的车辆，使其再次发生故障，我们就不会看见一团糟的局面。

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